墨西哥西南热带风暴“达莉拉”(04E.Dalila)

Enceladus

ASCAT B UHR 16Z

ygsj24

824
WTPZ34 KNHC 142342
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
600 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025

...DALILA CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 105.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan De Galeana to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 105.2 West. Dalila is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual
westward turn is expected tonight and Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of Dalila is forecast to remain offshore the southwestern
coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dalila is likely near its peak intensity and will gradually
begin to weaken by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Dalila can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header
WTPZ44 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero
through Sunday morning, with localized storm totals up to 9 inches
near the coast. This rainfall will lead to areas of flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Dalila, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Dalila will affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs/Cangialosi

红豆棒冰冰

SSD 00Z分析升回T3.5/3.5

TXPZ26 KNES 150017
TCSENP
A.  04E (DALILA)
B.  15/0000Z
C.  17.4N
D.  105.4W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T3.5/3.5
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2/SSMIS
H.  REMARKS...7.5/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW
VERY GOOD ALQDS XCPT SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED NW. MET AND PT=3.5. FT BASED
ON MET DUE TO IRREG/PULSING CORE CONVECTION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    14/2020Z 17.3N 104.8W AMSR2
    14/2119Z 17.3N 105.3W SSMIS
...KONON

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：曹迈  签发：许映龙  2025 年 06 月 15 日 10 时

“达莉拉”向西北方向移动

时        间:    15日08时（北京时）

海        域:    东北太平洋

命        名:    “达莉拉”，DALILA

中心位置:    西经105.3度, 北纬17.2度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    10级，28米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级

中心气压:    993百帕

参考位置:    墨西哥科利马州曼萨尼约西南方向约234公里

变化过程:    过去24小时，“达莉拉”强度逐渐增强

预报结论:    “达莉拉”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。

ygsj24

536
WTPZ44 KNHC 150255
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
800 PM MST Sat Jun 14 2025

Dalila is likely near its peak intensity, with little change in
organization evident since the previous advisory package. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were 65
knots and 55 knots, respectively. Objective estimates ranged from
45 to 57 knots, while an ASCAT pass earlier in the day showed
numerous 50 knot wind barbs. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 55 knots.

Dalila is now heading toward the west-northwest, or 295/10 knots. A
turn toward the west is expected tonight and Sunday, as Dalila is
steered by a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the southwest
U.S. A westward to slightly south of due west motion is then
forecast Sunday night through dissipation as Dalila moves over much
cooler water. The current forecast shows Dalila becoming a
post-tropical remnant low Sunday night, and dissipating by Tuesday.
The latest track forecast is very close to that of the previous
advisory, and generally in the middle of the various track aids.

Dalila should begin to weaken later tonight as some drier mid-level
air evident in water vapor imagery begins to impact the system. More
steady weakening is then forecast Sunday onward as the system moves
over much cooler water and into a progressively drier mid-level
environment. The latest intensity forecast is close to the previous
advisory and in good agreement with the intensity consensus
guidance.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.

2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.6N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  15/1200Z 17.9N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  16/0000Z 18.1N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  16/1200Z 17.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  17/1200Z 17.8N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Cangialosi