中东太／北大各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖（2025年）

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located well south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles off the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression will likely form on Friday or over the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Interests in southwestern
Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Forecaster Cangialosi

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located less than 150 miles west-southwest of Bermuda.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Imelda, located east of Bermuda.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the
next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with
another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow
development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


2. Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary
near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next
couple of days.  Any additional development is expected to be slow
to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Gulf of America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


Forecaster Pasch

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Southwestern Atlantic:
A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas
along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to
meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days.
Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant
development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance
with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce
heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today.
The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the
eastern tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.
Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some
slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical
depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end
of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a large area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern
Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Further development
is expected, and a tropical depression will likely form later today
or tomorrow. The system is forecast to move very slowly
west-northwestward, parallel to but offshore of the southwestern
coast of Mexico for the next several days. Interests along the
southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the south coast of
Mexico by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward to
northwestward near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster D. Zelinsky

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located in the east Pacific, well to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (EP99):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure a few hundred miles off the southwestern coast of Mexico
continue to become better organized this evening. However, recent
satellite-derived wind data depict a circulation that remains
somewhat broad, but if current trends persist, advisories on a
tropical depression could be initiated on Saturday. The system is
forecast to move very slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore
of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should continue to
monitor the progress of this system. For additional information,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southern coast
of Mexico by the middle of next week. Gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
during the middle to latter part of next week while moving
west-northwestward to northwestward, near or parallel to the coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

Forecaster Gibbs

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Bahamas and Southern Florida:
A weak area of low pressure located near the central and
northwestern Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity.  
This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the
northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next
couple of days.  Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent
significant development of the low, however, the combination of the
disturbance and the broader remnant boundary is still expected to
produce heavy rainfall and possible flooding across portions of
Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.



2. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave near the coast of Africa is producing a broad
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  The wave is
forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern
tropical Atlantic, and then move westward after that.  Environmental
conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow
development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression
could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Bahamas and Southern Florida:
A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas
continues to produce disorganized shower activity.  This system is
expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas
and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however
development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.  Heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east
coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



2. North-Central Gulf:
A weak area of low pressure has formed over the north-central Gulf
and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the
coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.  This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two,
reaching the coast of Texas by Monday.  Development of this system
is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.



3. Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and Cabo Verde
Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development of the wave is possible over
the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the
middle to latter part of next week while moving across the
central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



Forecaster Berg