斐济以西三级强热带气旋“韦亚努”(11F/31P.Vaianu) - 南下快速发展 - FMS:85KT JTWC:100KT

大水台6

91P INVEST 260402 1200 7.8S 176.6E SHEM 15 0

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ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/022221ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
10.2S 155.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 421 NM
EAST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLOGENESIS WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C), AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS, IN ADDITION TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GOOGLE DEEP MIND ENSEMBLE,
INDICATE QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT WITH QUICK CONSOLIDATION AND
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 022230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S
173.0E, APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 030047Z OCEANSAT
DEPICTS AN AREA OF CALMER WINDS (5-10 KTS) CLOSER TO THE CENTER, WHILE
MORE ELEVATED WINDS (10-15 KTS) ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
OF THE CIRCULATION. WITHIN THE STRUCTURE OF 91P, MULTIPLE
MESOVORTICIES ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ARE IDENTIFIABLE. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
ASSISTING THE SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 032047 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.8S
171.5E AT 031800UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS/EIR
IMAGERY. TD11F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. TD11F LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH WEAK UPPER
DIVERGENCE AND MODERATE LOWER CONVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

HOWEVER, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH CAN HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
LITTLE INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
VERY LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

*********************************************************************
**************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZAPR2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZAPR2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04APR26 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 30P (THIRTY) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1S 155.1E, APPROXIMATELY 717 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA,
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.4S 170.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 171.8E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILLA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ELONGATED
BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CENTER. A RECENT OSCAT-3 PASS REVEALED A
BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ALONG
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE ROTATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

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Information Number 1 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department,
Port Vila at 6:00pm VUT Saturday 4 April 2026.

At 5:00pm local time today, Tropical Low (TL) (1000 hPa) was located at 13.0S 171.1E. The Tropical Low
is positioned at the bottom left corner of square letter L, number 3 (L, 3) of the Vanuatu tropical
cyclone tracking map.  That is about 420 KM east northeast of the Banks group. The system is slow
moving in the southerly direction at 23 KM/HR. The potential for the tropical low to become a tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours is low to moderate.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11pm, 4 Apr)           13.4S, 170.9E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5am, 5 Apr)            13.7S, 170.8E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11am, 5 Apr)           14.0S, 170.7E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5pm, 5 Apr)            14.2S, 170.9E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5am, 6 Apr)            14.6S, 171.3E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5pm, 6 Apr)            15.2S, 171.7E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5am, 7 Apr)            16.0S, 172.1E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5pm, 7 Apr)            17.0S, 172.7E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Currently this low pressure system does not pose any threat to any island of Vanuatu. Heavy rainfall
and gustily winds is expected over northern islands as the system tracks closer to northern Vanuatu
group in the next 48 hours.

A strong wind warning is current for all open coastal waters of Vanuatu group. See Separate Marine
Warning Bulletin.

The next information on the system will be issued at 6:00am tomorrow or earlier if the situation
changes.  

This information is also available on the VMGD:  websit: www.vmgd.gov.vu, facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 pm April 4	tropical low	13.0S	171.1E	130
+6hr	11 pm April 4	tropical low	13.4S	170.9E	130
+12hr	5 am April 5	tropical low	13.7S	170.8E	130
+18hr	11 am April 5	tropical low	14.0S	170.7E	130
+24hr	5 pm April 5	tropical low	14.2S	170.9E	150
+36hr	5 am April 6	tropical low	14.6S	171.3E	150
+48hr	5 pm April 6	1	15.2S	171.7E	150
+60hr	5 am April 7	1	16.0S	172.1E	165
+72hr	5 pm April 7	1	17.0S	172.7E	165

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Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 040858 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD11F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 12.4S
171.3E AT 040600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-9 VIS/EIR
IMAGERY. TD11F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
ORGANISATION ORGANISATION IN THE LAST 6HRS. TD11F LIES IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND
MODERATE LOWER CONVERGENCE. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TO THE SOUTH THEN LATER
SOUTHEASTWARDS BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND
STRONG WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH MAY HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVED IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

*********************************************************************
**************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

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WTPS21 PGTW 041130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 171.0E TO 16.7S 172.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 171.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PERVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.3S 171.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 171.2E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
REVEALS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN ELONGATED
BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING CENTER AND RECENTLY DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. A 040959Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS OF 25-30 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH A FEW ISOLATED
PATCHES OF 35 KNOTS EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CELLS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), GOOD DIFFLUENT
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91P WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
051130Z.//
NNNN

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WTPS11 NFFN 041800
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A01 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 042044 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 171.6E
AT 041800 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI IR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION SLOW MOVING.  MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 700HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENT AREA WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD11F LIES IN A
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT SHEAR IS LOW IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF
THE SYSTEM. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.3 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5. PT= 1.5 AND MET IS NOT AVAILABLE. FT BASED ON
PT. THUS, YEILDING T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC 14.5S 171.8E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC 15.1S 172.1E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC 15.7S 172.6E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 061800 UTC 16.4S 173.1E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 45
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 050200UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	6 pm April 4	tropical low	13.7S	171.6E	110
+6hr	12 am April 5	tropical low	14.1S	171.6E	30
+12hr	6 am April 5	tropical low	14.5S	171.8E	55
+18hr	12 pm April 5	tropical low	14.8S	171.9E	85
+24hr	6 pm April 5	tropical low	15.1S	172.1E	110
+36hr	6 am April 6	1	15.7S	172.6E	170
+48hr	6 pm April 6	1	16.4S	173.1E	230
+60hr	6 am April 7	2	17.5S	173.7E	320
+72hr	6 pm April 7	2	18.9S	174.4E	405

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Information Number 2 on a Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department,
Port Vila at 6:00am VUT Sunday 5 April 2026.

At 5:00am local time today, Tropical Low (TL) (997 hPa) was located at 13.1S 171.4E. The Tropical Low
is positioned at the top center of square letter L, number 4 (L, 4) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone
tracking map.  That is about 450 KM east of the Banks group. The system is slow moving in the
east southeasterly direction at 3 KM/HR in the past 12hours. The potential for the tropical low to
become a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low to moderate.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                       Position                  Intensity
+06 hours (11am, 5 Apr)           13.5S, 171.4E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+12 hours (5pm, 5 Apr)            13.8S, 171.6E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+18 hours (11pm, 5 Apr)           14.1S, 171.7E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+24 hours (5am, 6 Apr)            14.4S, 171.9E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+36 hours (5pm, 6 Apr)            15.0S, 172.4E            30 KTS (55 KM/HR)
+48 hours (5am, 7 Apr)            15.6S, 172.9E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+60 hours (5pm, 7 Apr)            16.5S, 173.3E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)
+72 hours (5am, 8 Apr)            17.6S, 174.0E            40 KTS (75 KM/HR)

Currently the Tropical Low pressure system does not pose any threat to the islands of Vanuatu. However,
heavy isolated rainfall with gustily winds may be experience over northern islands as the system tracks
closer within the next 48 hours.

A strong wind warning is current for all open coastal waters of Vanuatu. Please refer to Separate Marine
Warning Bulletin.

Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department is closely monitoring system and would issued necessary
necessary information should the system develop further. The next information on the system will be issued
at 6:00pm today or earlier if the situation changes.  

This information is also available on the VMGD:  websit: www.vmgd.gov.vu, facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/vmgd.gov.vu/

	Time (VUT)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am April 5	tropical low	13.1S	171.4E	130
+6hr	11 am April 5	tropical low	13.5S	171.4E	155
+12hr	5 pm April 5	tropical low	13.8S	171.6E	185
+18hr	11 pm April 5	tropical low	14.1S	171.7E	215
+24hr	5 am April 6	tropical low	14.4S	171.9E	240
+36hr	5 pm April 6	tropical low	15.0S	172.4E	300
+48hr	5 am April 7	1	15.6S	172.9E	360
+60hr	5 pm April 7	1	16.5S	173.3E	450
+72hr	5 am April 8	1	17.6S	174.0E	535

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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A02 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Apr 050153 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 171.7E
AT 050000 UTC.  POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 07
KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 25 KNOTS.

CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SUPPOSED
LLCC. ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE UPPER
DIVERGENT AREA WITH A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD11F LIES IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BUT SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. SST AOUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON
0.3 WRAP YEILDS DT=1.5. PT= 1.5 WHILE MET IS NOT AVAILABLE. FT BASED
ON PT. THUS, YEILDING T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS
MODERATE TO HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC 14.6S 172.0E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 060000 UTC 15.2S 172.5E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 30 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 061200 UTC 15.9S 173.0E MOV SSE AT 04KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 070000 UTC 17.0S 173.7E MOV SSE AT 04 KT WITH 50
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 051400UTC.

	Time (UTC)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	12 am April 5	tropical low	13.9S	171.7E	[! No value and no default value for observed_uncertainty element !]
+6hr	6 am April 5	tropical low	14.3S	171.8E	30
+12hr	12 pm April 5	tropical low	14.6S	172.0E	55
+18hr	6 pm April 5	tropical low	15.0S	172.2E	85
+24hr	12 am April 6	tropical low	15.2S	172.5E	110
+36hr	12 pm April 6	1	15.9S	173.0E	170
+48hr	12 am April 7	2	17.0S	173.7E	230
+60hr	12 pm April 7	2	18.4S	174.5E	320
+72hr	12 am April 8	2	19.9S	175.5E	405