迪戈加西亚东南中等热带风暴第11号“霍拉西奥”(22S.Horacio)

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97S INVEST 260213 0600 7.5S 69.4E SHEM 15 0
97S INVEST 260213 0600 7.5S 69.4E SHEM 20 1009

yhh

ABIO10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/170600Z-171800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16FEB26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 25.3S 43.6E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.0S
74.2E, APPROXIMATELY 271 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY A BROAD REGION OF FLARING CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTH AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 170358Z ASCAT PASS
REVELS THAT THE LLC REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH BUT IS
BEGINNING TO CONGEAL INTO A SEPARATE CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT REVEALED
WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH, AND UP TO
20 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (20 TO 25KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THE STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OF 97S WITH NAVGEM BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE DEPICTING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. ENSEMBLES MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT OF ITS FORMATION,
BOTH GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS DEPICT 97S HAVING A GENERALLY SOUTH
EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

Ragasa

AWIO20 FMEE 171135
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/17 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO24 044/10 and WTIO30 050/10 issued at 06 UTC sur la Forte Tempete Tropicale GEZANI. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.

PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin has a Monsoon Trough (MT) configuration east of 60E between 9 and 11S. Convective activity is moderate on the northern side of the MT, near a large circulation south of the Chagos Islands. Convective activity is also present near GEZANI, which is moving south of Madagascar.

The combination of an equatorial Rossby wave moving over the center of the basin and an active phase of the MJO is strengthening the monsoon flow and promoting low-level convergence within the TM. Conditions are therefore favorable for cyclogenesis over the center of the basin in the middle and end of the week.

Severe Tropical Storm GEZANI :
Information at 09 UTC :
Estimated position :  29.7 S / 42.9E
Movement : SW, 19kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 55 kt
Estimated central pressure : 986 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.

South of the Chagos archipelago :
The 0357Z ASCAT swath shows the presence of a large circulation within the TM around 11S/75E with winds reaching 25 kt in the monsoon flow. Convective activity was locally strong last night and this morning near the circulation but has weakened in recent hours.

The persistence of very good convergence on the equatorial side over the next few days should allow this circulation to develop into a moderate tropical storm by Friday, with good agreement among deterministic ensemble and AI models on this scenario. The minimum should initially move southward and then southwestward, steered by a subtropical ridge in the lower to middle troposphere located southeast of the minimum.

The risk of tropical storm formation over the center of the basin is expected to become moderate from Thursday 19th then high from Friday 20th February.





NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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ABIO10 PGTW 180000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/180000Z-181800ZFEB2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZFEB2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17FEB26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (GEZANI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 31.5S 42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 567 NM SOUTH OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS.
SEE REF A (WTXS32 PGTW 172100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.6S 74.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BUILDING NEAR THE CENTER. A PARTIAL 171556Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALED WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C).  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON STEADY DEVELOPMENT AND A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
NNNN

Ragasa

AWIO20 FMEE 181044
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER
IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2026/02/18 A 1200 UTC

PART 1: WARNING SUMMARY



Bulletins WTIO24 048/10 and WTIO30 054/10 issued at 06 UTC sur la Tempete Tropicale Moderee GEZANI. Next bulletins issued at 12 UTC.



PART 2 : TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The basin has a Monsoon Trough (MT) configuration east of 55E between 9 and 11S. Convective activity is strong on the northern side of the MT, near a large circulation south of the Chagos Islands. Convective activity is now weak near GEZANI, which is moving south of Madagascar.

The combination of an equatorial Rossby wave moving over the center of the basin and an active phase of the MJO is strengthening the monsoon flow and promoting low-level convergence within the TM. Conditions are therefore favorable for cyclogenesis over the center of the basin in the middle and end of the week.

Moderate Tropical Storm GEZANI :
Information at 09 UTC :
Estimated position :  34.9 S / 41.5 E
Movement : SE, 15 kt
Maximum wind speed (averaged over 10 minutes) : 40 kt
Estimated central pressure : 990 hPa
For further information, please refer to bulletins WTIO24 and WTIO30 issued at 06 UTC and following.



South of the Chagos archipelago :
Within the MT, a low-pressure system is developing south of the Chagos Islands. The GCOM-W microwave image from 0843 Z shows a more clearly defined center than yesterday, located at approximately 11.93 S / 74.7 E at 09UTC. In addition, convection has intensified significantly since last night near the center. This area can be classified as a tropical disturbance with maximum estimated winds of around 25 kt. It is moving slowly westward at a speed of 5 kt.

The persistence of very good convergence on the equatorial side over the next few days should allow this circulation to develop into a moderate tropical storm by Friday, with good agreement among deterministic ensemble and AI models on this scenario. The minimum should initially move southward and then southwestward, steered by a subtropical ridge in the lower to middle troposphere located southeast of the minimum.

The risk of tropical storm formation over the center of the basin is expected to become moderate from Thursday 19th then high from Friday 20th February.





NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin within the next five days:

Very low: less than 10%      Moderate: 30% to 60%      Very high: over 90%
Low: 10% to 30%              High: 60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian ocean basin extends from the Equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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WTXS21 PGTW 190100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 76.3E TO 16.1S 76.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 190000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9S 76.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 76.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 76.3E, APPROXIMATELY 401 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PATCHY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE, PRIMARILY CONFINED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. WHILE
THE VORTEX REMAINS VERTICALLY TILTED DUE TO THIS SHEAR, THE LLCC HAS
BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND MORE SYMMETRIC IN RECENT HOURS. AN 182230Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED TIGHTLY COILED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS
AROUND THE LLCC. AN EARLIER 181611Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KNOT WIND
BELTS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC, THOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REMAINED SOMEWHAT DISTANT (ABOUT 80 NM) FROM THE CENTER, INDICATING
THAT AN ORGANIZED INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE ENCOMPASSING THE LLCC.
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS) IS THE PRIMARY LIMITING
FACTOR SHORT-TERM. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWARD, IT WILL
ENTER A REGION OF LIGHTER VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH
THE WELL-DEFINED LLCC AS A FOUNDATION, THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW THE
VORTEX TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED, WITH DEEP CONVECTION
GRADUALLY SYMMETRIZING AROUND THE LLCC. PHYSICAL AND AI-BASED MODELS
ALIKE ARE DEVELOPING A STRONG CONSENSUS FOR SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT.
THE ECMWF AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING WARNING
THRESHOLD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HWRF AND HAFS-A
MODELS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THE GOOGLE DEEPMIND ENSEMBLE MEAN IN 12
TO 24 HOURS. THESE MODELS ALSO GENERALLY AGREE ON A SHORT-TERM
SOUTHWARD TRACK, BENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200100Z.
//
NNNN

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WTIO30 FMEE 190652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2026/02/19 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 76.6 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 260 NW: 10

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/19 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 165 SW: 250 NW: 95

24H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 260 SW: 250 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 75

36H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 20 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/21 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 315 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 65

60H: 2026/02/21 18 UTC: 17.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 325 SW: 350 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/22 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/23 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 350 SW: 335 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/24 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 63.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 415 SW: 350 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 80 NW: 70

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK SOUTH
OF DIEGO GARCIA. CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
SINCE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY MORE PERSISTENT SINCE YESTERDAY NEAR A
CENTER THAT WAS INITIAL LONGENED AND THEN BECAME CLEARLY OBSERVABLE
ON YESTERDAY'S 0843Z GCOM-W MICROWAVE IMAGE. IT REMAINS CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CENTER FOR THE MOMENT, PUSHED BACK BY
VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHEAST. AN INITIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION OF 1.5 WAS ESTABLISHED ON WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 18, AT 15
UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM LAST NIGHT, NOTABLY F18 FROM 2250Z AND F17
FROM 0120Z, SHOW A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL, AS WELL AS AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CURVATURE OF THE
SYSTEM. IN SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THE DVORAK T NUMBER IS RAISED TO 2.0 FOR
THIS ANALYSIS TIME. THE PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 0420Z ESTIMATES WINDS NEAR
30KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SYSTEM 01-20252026 IS CURRENTLY
CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, INITIALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW, THEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST, WHICH BECOMES PREDOMINANT IN THE
LONGER TERM. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MAIN GUIDANCES.
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERN SHEARING. FOR THE
FOLLOWING DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE: DECREASED SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND AN ALTITUDE
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TOWARD THE POLE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED ON THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE MEDIUM
TERM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

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WTIO30 FMEE 191300
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2026/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 76.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 335 SW: 280 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/20 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 250 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 315 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 325 SW: 305 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 0

48H: 2026/02/21 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2026/02/22 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 71.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/22 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 69.4 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 305 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/23 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 400 SW: 335 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/24 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 445 SW: 390 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO PERSIST
NEAR THE CENTER BUT REMAINS FRAGMENTED AND CONTAINED IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE SYSTEM. GPM 37 MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0748Z SHOWS THAT THE
CENTRAL CORE IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE,
PROBABLY DUE TO MODERATE EAST SECTOR CONSTRAINTS. IN THE DVORAK
SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS, THERE IS NO CHANGE, AND THE T NUMBER REMAINS AT 2.0.
SYSTEM 11-20252026 REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH THEN SOUTHWEST, INITIALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MONSOON FLOW, THEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST, WHICH BECOMES PREDOMINANT THIS
WEEKEND.THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD ONCE AGAIN CURVE ITS TRACK
SOUTHWARD AND MOVE TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE 500 HPA LEVEL. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK
REMAINS MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG
THE MAIN GUIDANCES.

INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED IN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERN SHEAR. FOR THE FOLLOWING
DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE:
DECREASED SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND AN ALTITUDE OUTFLOW
CHANNEL TOWARD THE POLE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY INTO
A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW EVENING AND POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RSMC FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY
DISPERSED ON THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

qiqi

WTIO30 FMEE 191852
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2026/02/19 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 76.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/20 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 65

24H: 2026/02/20 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 305 SW: 250 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 75

36H: 2026/02/21 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 325 SW: 260 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2026/02/21 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 270 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2026/02/22 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 345 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2026/02/22 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 360 SW: 285 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 205 SW: 175 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/23 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 390 SW: 305 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2026/02/24 18 UTC: 25.4 S / 65.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 415 SW: 325 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE
CENTER AND MORE SPECIFICALLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO SHOW FRAGMENTED CONVECTION.
OVERALL, THE CURVED BAND CONFIGURATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A DVORAK
ANALYSIS REACHING 2.5, A VALUE IN LINE WITH THE JTWC ANALYSIS. THE
LATEST USABLE MICROWAVE DATA IS FROM THE WSFM AT 1252UTC, SHOWING A
SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH NO CLEAR SIGNS TO
VALIDATE THE PASSAGE TO THE 34KT THRESHOLD. THE SMAP DATA FROM
1256UTC PROVIDES VALUES CLOSE TO 34KT BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY
OVERESTIMATED AS THERE IS NO INCREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
PASSAGE, WHICH WAS ALREADY CLOSE TO 34KT. UNDER THESE CONDITIONS, THE
DVORAK WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30KT. SYSTEM 11-20252026 THEREFORE
REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWARD, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AT
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY, CAUSING IT TO TURN SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, SLIDING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, WHICH IS REMAINING IN PLACE,
WILL GRADUALLY TAKE A SOUTHERN DIRECTION FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH LATITUDES. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK REMAINS
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MAIN
GUIDANCES.

AS FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEARING. STARTING ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE: DECREASED
SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND A GOOD EVACUATION CHANNEL AT
ALTITUDE TOWARD THE POLE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY: INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 HOURS, THEN POSSIBLY INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS
LONG INTENSIFICATION, FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BUT
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS STAGE. IN THE LONGER TERM, AS IT MOVES
SOUTHWARD FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN UNDER
THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE RSMC FORECAST IS
BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES, WHICH
REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED IN TERMS OF THE RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 200028
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/11/20252026
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2026/02/20 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 75.9 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 270 SW: 220 NW: 140

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2026/02/20 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 360 SW: 270 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 0

24H: 2026/02/21 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 325 SW: 285 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 0

36H: 2026/02/21 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 305 SW: 270 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 35 NW: 45

48H: 2026/02/22 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 345 SW: 295 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

60H: 2026/02/22 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 345 SW: 285 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2026/02/23 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 315 SE: 360 SW: 305 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2026/02/24 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 64.2 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 425 SW: 315 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65

120H: 2026/02/25 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 425 SE: 465 SW: 380 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW
FRAGMENTED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION, WHILE
IT HAS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTOR DUE
TO CONVERGENCE IN THE MONSOON FLOW. HOWEVER, THE CURVATURE OF THE
CURVED BAND HAS NOT REALLY IMPROVED, AND THE LATEST GCOM-W MICROWAVE
DATA FROM 2121UTC STILL SHOW A WEAKLY CONSOLIDATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WITH A DVORAK ANALYSIS THAT REMAINS AT 2.5 AND THE
UNCLEAR NATURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION, SYSTEM 11-20252026
REMAINS AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WITH WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED
AT 30KT.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHWARD, GUIDED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THIS RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AT
MIDDAY ON FRIDAY, CAUSING IT TO TURN SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM, SLIDING
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE, WHICH IS REMAINING IN PLACE,
WILL GRADUALLY TAKE A SOUTHERN DIRECTION FROM MONDAY ONWARDS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE HIGH LATITUDES. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK REMAINS
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, LEAVING A SCENARIO OF A TRACK SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO RODRIGUES THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AN OPTION TAKEN BY THE
RSMC FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST.

AS FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEARING. STARTING ON FRIDAY DURING THE DAY AND OVER THE FOLLOWING
DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE: DECREASED
SHEAR, HIGH OCEANIC POTENTIAL, AND A GOOD EVACUATION CHANNEL AT
ALTITUDE TOWARD THE POLE. THE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY: INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY MORNING, THEN
POSSIBLY INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN STRONGER OVER THE WEEKEND.
DURING THIS LONG INTENSIFICATION, FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS STAGE. IN THE LONGER TERM,
AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECT OF INCREASING ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. THE RSMC
FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE BEST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCES, WHICH REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPERSED IN TERMS OF THE RATE
OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE MEDIUM TERM.

NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS EXPECTED FOR POPULATED AREAS OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS.