ABIO10 PGTW 060800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/060800Z-061800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N
89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 060243Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KTS
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 29 C) OFFSET BY
MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KTS). GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON THE 90B TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW THE
MOST AGGRESSION IN THE FORMATION OF 90B WITH ECENS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. ON THE OTHER HAND, DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 90B
STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 05JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65
KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 052100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 09S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.2S 52.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) AND
DISSIPATED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN
ABIO10 PGTW 070830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/070830Z-071800ZJAN2026//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061951ZJAN2026//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.1N 89.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 632 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND AN 070105Z 91 HZ SSMIS PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO FORM
OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(28 TO 29 C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON 90B TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
TOWARD SRI LANKA OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN DETERMINISTIC MODELS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF 90B. ECENS
STANDS OUT DEPICTING QUICK DEVELOPMENT. THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
STILL RELUCTANT IN THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF 90B WITH ECMWF
SHOWING THE MOST CONSOLIDATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 06JAN26 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (JENNA) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 93.6E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS
ISLANDS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 062100) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
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发表于 2026-1-4 08:10
发表于 2026-1-6 21:26
