科科斯群岛西北三级强热带气旋“水仙”(05U/07S.Bakung) - 环流袖珍 - BoM:75KT JTWC:70KT

Ragasa

91S INVEST 251206 1800 5.3S 92.2E SHEM 15 1009

NaTyphoon

1. SH, 91, 2025120606,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  909E,  10, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
   
2. SH, 91, 2025120612,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  915E,  15, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
   
3. SH, 91, 2025120618,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  922E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,   80,  10,   0,   0,   P,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
   
4. SH, 91, 2025120700,   , BEST,   0,  53S,  926E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,   80,  10,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

复制代码

菌菇月亮

EC貌似不是特别看好，FNV3反应强烈的应该是这个（不太确定

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 100800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/100800Z-101800ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.1S
98.6E, APPROXIMATELY 570 NM NORTHWEST OF CHIRSTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 092326Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC
AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 25-
30 KNOTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST) OF 28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
TRACKS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTHERN SUMATRA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/101800Z-
111800ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.1S 98.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8S 99.7E, APPROXIMATELY 493 NM WEST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY,
AND A 101439Z METOP-B ASCAT PARTIAL PASS DEPICTED ELEVATED WINDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, POORLY-ORGANIZED,
AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 10-15
KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF
28-29 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW DISAGREEMENT IN
FORMATION TIME WITH ECMWF BEING CONSERVATIVE WITH FORMATION. WHILE THE
TRACKS ARE IN AGREEANCE BETWEEN THE MODELS SHOWING THE SYSTEM INITIALLY
TRANSITING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF SUMATRA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

Ragasa

ABIO10 PGTW 102230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/102230Z-111800ZDEC2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
4.8S 99.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 100.1E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM WEST OF
JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 101520Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION IN THE UPPER
LEVELS AS WELL AS ELEVATED WINDS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT
INITIALLY TRANSITS SOUTHEAST ALONG SUMATRA AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO
27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

Ragasa

Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysics
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta
TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

For areas EQ 90 BT, 10 LS 90 BT, 10 LS 120 BT, 11 LS 120 BT, 11 LS 128 BT, 9 LS 128 BT, 9 LS 141 BT, EQ 141 BT
Issued by the Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC) Jakarta
At 07:00 WIB, Thursday, December 11th, 2025

There is an Invest 91S within the Jakarta TCWC's area of responsibility, currently detected in the Indian Ocean sout of Lampung with wind speeds of 25 knots (46 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 1008 hPa.

The potential of invest 91S grows into a tropical cyclone within the TCWC Jakarta area of responsibility in the next few days is predicted as follows:
Thursday [+24 hours]: Low - Moderate
Friday [+48 hours]: Moderate
Saturday [+72 hours]: Moderate

Notes: Growth potential is a forecast of possible tropical cyclone growth for each day.
LOW: < 20%; MODERATE: 20% – 50%; HIGH: > 50%

pocketbox

WTXS21 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.3S 101.8E TO 9.8S 97.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 101.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.7S 100.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 395 NM
NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN 110223Z METOP-C 25KM
ASCAT PASS DEPICTS ELEVATED WINDS (25-30 KTS) IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WHILE 91S HAS GOOD POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, IT IS CURRENTLY BEING RESTRICTED ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
IN AGREEMENT ON A STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRANSITS SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY
FROM SUMATRA AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120900Z.//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 05U
Tropical low (05U) to pass well to the north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Sunday.

• A tropical low (05U) has formed in the Indian Ocean west of Sumatra, well to north of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
• 05U is expected to move southwest over the coming days and pass well to the north of Cocos (Keeling) Islands on Sunday.
• On this track, 05U is not expected to cause a direct impact over the islands. However, forecasts need to be monitored over the coming days for potential changes.
• The likelihood of 05U developing into a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate on Saturday.
• A second tropical low may form well to the north of the Australian Region and follow a similar path of 05U early next week. 7-Day forecasts will be issued for this system once there is higher confidence of it forming.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:15 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Sat 13  Dec 11:00 am

Sat 13  Dec 11:00 pm

Sun 14  Dec 11:00 am

Sun 14  Dec 11:00 pm

Mon 15  Dec 11:00 am

Mon 15  Dec 11:00 pm

Tue 16  Dec 11:00 am

Tue 16  Dec 11:00 pm

Wed 17  Dec 11:00 am

Wed 17  Dec 11:00 pm

Thu 18  Dec 11:00 am

Thu 18  Dec 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 05U

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110851ZDEC2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111800Z --- NEAR 8.2S 98.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2S 98.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120600Z --- 8.9S 97.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 9.5S 95.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 10.0S 93.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 10.6S 92.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 11.1S 91.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 11.4S 90.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 11.8S 90.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 8.4S 98.5E.
11DEC25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 267
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 111800Z IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120900Z AND 122100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 110900).//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 112100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR
   
4. 001//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 8.2S 98.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 267 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS
    
13. ISLANDS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 07S BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE
    
20. ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND
    
21. COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
22. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    
23. DEVELOPMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 C AND 29 C,
    
24. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
    
25. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR
    
26. IMAGERY AND PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
    
27. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER (110223Z) METOP-C
    
28. ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
    
29. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
    
30. DEVELOPMENT AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 111800Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
41.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
42.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
53. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: INITIALLY TC 07S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
    
56. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
    
57. TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE.
    
58. AFTER TAU 60 THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO ENTER A REGION OF THE
    
59. SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN ENCOUNTERING A CHANGING STEERING
    
60. ENVIRONMENT. THE TRACK WILL BE DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY RIDGING TO
    
61. THE EAST AND NORTH, AFFECTED BY A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
    
62. SOUTH. BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120, ANOTHER STR CENTERED TO THE
    
63. SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD AND BEGIN INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF TC 07S
    
64. TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN THE MEANTIME, THIS COMPETING
    
65. STEERING PATTERN WILL CREATE A BOXING SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM
    
66. ALLOWED ONLY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION INVEST 92S
    
67. WILL COME WITHIN 250-300 NM OF THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TC 07.
    
68. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PREDICTED TRACK. IN
    
69. TERMS OF INTENSITY DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE FORECAST, THE
    
70. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, PRIMARILY DUE TO
    
71. INCREASING VWS, SLOWER TRANSLATIONAL SPEED RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
    
72. COOLER WATER UPWELLING, AND DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
    
73. INVEST 97S.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 150 NM
    
76. BY TAU 60 WITH THE MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW LONG TC 07 WILL
    
77. STALL IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COMPETING
    
78. STEERING MECHANISMS AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
    
79. SYSTEM (INVEST 91S). THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO
    
80. THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND SLOWER
    
81. PROGRESSION AFTER TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 45 KTS
    
82. WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48 THE MODELS
    
83. COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
    
84. MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THE
    
85. JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY REFLECTS CLOSELY THE VALUES OF THE
    
86. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME
    
87. ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL
    
88. SYSTEM (91S) AND THE STRENGTH OF STEERING MECHANISMS.   
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
    
94.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
95. NNNN

复制代码

1. WDXS31 PGTW 112100 COR
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WARNING NR
   
4. 001A CORRECTED//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 8.2S 98.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 267 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE COCOS
    
13. ISLANDS
    
14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KTS
    
15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
16. 
    
17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
19. CYCLONE (TC) 07S BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE
    
20. ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND
    
21. COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION.
    
22. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
    
23. DEVELOPMENT WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 28 C AND 29 C,
    
24. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL
    
25. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANIMATED EIR
    
26. IMAGERY AND PGTW DVORAK FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS
    
27. ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EARLIER (110223Z) METOP-C
    
28. ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
    
29. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE
    
30. DEVELOPMENT AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW.
    
31. 
    
32. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 111800Z
    
39. 
    
40. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
41.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
42.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
43.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
    
44. 
    
45. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
46.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
47.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
48.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
49. 
    
50. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
51. 
    
52. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
    
53. MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
    
54. 
    
55. FORECAST DISCUSSION: INITIALLY TC 07S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
    
56. ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED
    
57. TO THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE.
    
58. AFTER TAU 60 THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO ENTER A REGION OF THE
    
59. SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN ENCOUNTERING A CHANGING STEERING
    
60. ENVIRONMENT. THE TRACK WILL BE DETERMINED PRIMARILY BY RIDGING TO
    
61. THE EAST AND NORTH, AFFECTED BY A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE
    
62. SOUTH. BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120, ANOTHER STR CENTERED TO THE
    
63. SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD AND BEGIN INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF TC 07S
    
64. TOWARD A MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IN THE MEANTIME, THIS COMPETING
    
65. STEERING PATTERN WILL CREATE A BOXING SCENARIO WITH THE SYSTEM
    
66. ALLOWED ONLY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT. IN ADDITION INVEST 92S
    
67. WILL COME WITHIN 250-300 NM OF THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TC 07.
    
68. THIS WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THE PREDICTED TRACK. IN
    
69. TERMS OF INTENSITY DURING THE SECOND PART OF THE FORECAST, THE
    
70. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER TAU 48, PRIMARILY DUE TO
    
71. INCREASING VWS, SLOWER TRANSLATIONAL SPEED RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
    
72. COOLER WATER UPWELLING, AND DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH
    
73. INVEST 92S.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: CROSS TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 150 NM
    
76. BY TAU 60 WITH THE MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE HOW LONG TC 07 WILL
    
77. STALL IN THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF COMPETING
    
78. STEERING MECHANISMS AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL
    
79. SYSTEM (INVEST 92S). THE JTWC FORECASTED TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO
    
80. THE MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE AND SLOWER
    
81. PROGRESSION AFTER TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPREAD UP TO 45 KTS
    
82. WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU 48 THE MODELS
    
83. COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
    
84. MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. ALTHOUGH THE
    
85. JTWC FORECASTED INTENSITY REFLECTS CLOSELY THE VALUES OF THE
    
86. MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OUTCOME
    
87. ACCOUNTING FOR UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL
    
88. SYSTEM (92S) AND THE STRENGTH OF STEERING MECHANISMS.  
    
89. 
    
90. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
91.    TRACK 00-72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
    
93.    INTENSITY 00-72 HR: LOW
    
94.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW
    
95. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED THE INVEST THAT IS
    
96. REFERENCED.//
    
97. NNNN

复制代码