背风群岛以北五级飓风“温贝托”(08L.Humberto) - 西北行进，风眼开出，快速增强 - NHC:140KT

qiqi

AL, 93, 2025092306,   , BEST,   0, 142N,  476W,  20, 1011, DB,

---

1. Central and Western Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is showing
signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast to
become more favorable for development later today or tonight,
and a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across
the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231128
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located a little less than 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
continues to show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be favorable for development over the next several
days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the latter half
of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to
northwestward into the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday.  The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

qiqi

1. Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be generally favorable for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 232337
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands has become
better organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for further development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the extreme northeastern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers,
thunderstorms and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands.  This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday, and across
the Dominican Republic beginning late Wednesday.  The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic in a couple of days.  Environmental conditions
are forecast to be more conducive for development late this week,
and a tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is
in the vicinity of the Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands,
and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

ygsj24

458
ABNT20 KNHC 240532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 700 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for further development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the western tropical
Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea continues to
produce a large area of disorganized showers, thunderstorms and
gusty winds across much of the Windward and Leeward Islands.  This
wave is expected to move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph,
spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands today, and across the Dominican Republic beginning
tonight.  The system is then expected to slow down and turn
northwestward when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic in a couple
of days.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development late this week and weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the vicinity
of the Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the
Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

ygsj24

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241143
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Central and Western Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an elongated area
of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands continues to show signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form later today or Thursday
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward into the
western tropical Atlantic, well north of the Leeward Islands.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea (AL94):
A tropical wave over the northeastern Caribbean Sea is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This wave is expected to
move west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall
and gusty winds into Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, and
across the Dominican Republic beginning tonight.  The system is then
expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the
southwestern Atlantic late this week.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be more conducive for development in a few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form when the disturbance is in the
vicinity of the Bahamas.  Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico, the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is scheduled to perform a system survey
this afternoon to gather data from the surrounding environment, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly

yhh

WTNT21 KNGU 241500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (93L)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.1N 53.7W TO 23.1N 58.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.1N 53.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2.THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A
BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DEVELOVING WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SHOW INCREASED SIGNS OF
ORGINIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM AS SOON AS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS IS TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, SUPERSEDED BY POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE ADVISORY, UPGRADED TO WARNING, OR CANCELLED BY 251500Z.
//

ygsj24

641
WTNT43 KNHC 242035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
500 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

Satellite data indicates that Invest 93L over the central tropical
Atlantic has now developed into Tropical Storm Humberto. Visible
satellite imagery shows that throughout the day, the low-level
center has become well-defined, with persistent and organized deep
convection mainly located over the eastern side of the system.
Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both
data-T/2.5 35 kt. DPRINT and DMINT Objective intensity estimates
from UW-CIMSS range from 31 to 35 kt. Using these data, the
initial intensity is set to 35 kt.

The system is estimated to be moving west-northwestward at 300/13
kt, but this is of low confidence since the center has only recently
formed.  A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
anticipated through the next several days along the southwestern
periphery of a mid-latitude ridge. Towards the end of the forecast
period, an approaching trough moving offshore the east coast of the
United States will erode the ridge and allow the system to turn more
northward. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the
forward speed and cross-track spread of the system. This is
increasingly apparent beyond day 3 as there are complex steering
components with timing differences in the global models, including
the approaching trough and potential binary interaction with Invest
94L. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids given some
of these uncertainties, and there is lower than normal confidence in
the track forecast.

The storm is within a favorable environment for strengthening with
warm sea surface temperatures near 29C and moist mid-level RH
values. The system will be dealing with some moderate westerly wind
shear for the next day or so that will likely cause an asymmetric
storm structure. EC and GFS SHIPS guidance depict the shear slightly
weakening in the day 2 to 4 time frame, and with increasing
divergence aloft, a slightly greater rate of strengthening is shown
at that time. The latest NHC forecast follows these trends and lies
near the consensus intensity aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 20.1N  54.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 20.9N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 21.6N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 22.0N  57.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 22.5N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  27/0600Z 22.9N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 23.6N  60.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 26.0N  64.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 29.1N  67.1W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kelly

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：徐立、刘涛  签发：王海平  2025 年 09 月 25 日 10 时
“温贝托”于今天凌晨生成

时        间:   25日08时

海        域:    北大西洋

命        名:    “温贝托”，HUMBERTO

中心位置:    西经55.4度，北纬20.5度

强度等级:    热带风暴

最大风力:    8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1008百帕

参考位置:    距离北大西洋开曼群岛东北方向约840公里

变化过程:    “温贝托”于今天凌晨在北大西洋生成

预报结论:   “温贝托”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐增强。



图3 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年9月25日08时00分）

ygsj24

000
WTNT43 KNHC 250253
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082025
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 24 2025

The cloud pattern of Humberto has changed little in organization
over the past several hours.  Some rudimentary convective banding
features are evident but the cold cloud tops are rather fragmented
at this time.  Upper-level outflow is  being restricted over the
western portion of the circulation, at least partially due to the
outflow from disturbance 94L located near Puerto Rico.  The current
intensity estimate is set at 40 kt in agreement with a recently
received scatterometer pass.

The storm center is not yet very well-defined so the initial motion
is a rather uncertain 300/10 kt.  Over the next few days, Humberto
should be steered generally west-northwestward to northwestward on
the southwestern side of a subtropical mid-level high pressure area.
The steering scenario for the tropical cyclone will likely become
more complicated in 2-3 days due to the interaction with the
developing system 94L to the west.  The official forecast track is
quite similar to the previous one, and roughly in the middle of the
guidance.  However, due to the likely complications in the evolution
of the steering flow, there is lower than normal confidence in this
track forecast.

Global models suggest that there will be some relaxation in westerly
vertical wind shear over Humberto in the coming days. This, along
with very warm ocean waters and a moist mid-level air mass, should
lead to strengthening.  The system will probably become a hurricane
in a couple of days, and then strengthen into a major hurricane.  
The official intensity forecast is in reasonable agreement with the
simple and corrected model consensus, including the latest FSU
Superensemble forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 20.7N  55.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 21.4N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 21.9N  57.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 22.4N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 22.9N  58.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
60H  27/1200Z 23.4N  60.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 24.0N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 26.3N  66.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 30.1N  68.9W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Blake